Dobbing 2

DOB - Double or Bust - an evens money bet

DOBBING - To place an evens money bet (with events money risk) on a horse no matter its odds.

Example:

Back at 10.0 for £20

Lay at 5.0 for £40

Outcome: Win £20 or lose £20 depending on the lay bet being matched in play (or pre-play)

Explain:

Straight backing a horse means you are taking the risk on offer on the exchange. By 'dobbing' you are always taking a 50/50 risk, or equivalent odds of 2.0.

By hedging your bets in-play you can take any risk level you deem appropriate. In essence, by hedging, you are creating your own pseudo market and backing the horse to perform as well as you feel it can. It doesn't have to run any better than that for you to win that bet. With this type of betting you are taking control of your own risk levels. You pick the risk level - not strictly dobbing but hedging at the appropriate level for the horse in question.

Problems arise when we are faced with deciding what risk levels to actually take on any horse.

There are many sites and services dedicated to providing information about the chance of horses winning, from race cards to ratings services with many levels of information. Few of these however give information showing exactly how well horses have ran, sure there are in-running comments, winning distances and speed ratings but none of these actually tell you how much money could have been achieved in-play from the lowest price the horses were traded at.

Exactly how well horses have run, with a direct link to profitability, can be calculated by using 2 pieces of information about each horse in each of its previous races, which are the Betfair Start Price and the Lowest In-Play Price it traded at. This can give the exact in-play profitability for this horse. We end up with a form guide for in-running performance not 'crossing the line first' performance.

If we want flexibility with our hedging, a radical new way to visualize this information is needed if we are to make any sense of it.

With 'dobbing', for any given horse we want to see how profitable it has been in the past.

This table shows data for the horse 'Novinophobia', specifically showing double or bust stats (hedging at 2.0 return) for all of its previous runs:

 

* as of 03/09/2015

The profitability of this horse, by just backing (not hedging out), at BSP is a loss of just under 1 point as its won once at odds of 3.1 and lost 4 times.

However the dobbing profitability of this horse is 3.15 points - that's an ROI of over 50%.

Here we can see a profit graph showing its past 5 runs, each time achieving an evens money return by trading in-play at halve or lower that its starting price with 1 loss in the second race.

This is all well and good, we can see the profitably at a return of evens - 2.0, but what about its profitability at 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, 1.75 and so on. For that we need another chart showing target return against profit achieved at that risk level.

Here is a chart for the same horse with a intersect line at 2.0 (for dobbing)

Now you can see exactly what this horses in-running performance looks like for a range of risk levels and you can choose the hedging risk level that actually suits this horse and your betting strategy. You may be able to see here that a lower risk cuts out that previous loss, so a 1.75 risk level (lower than dobbing at 2.0) give this profit over time:

DobbingExampleChart175

Slightly better return and cutting out that loss to make the profit more consistent.

The Software:

'Dobbin Day' is a desktop software for PC or Mac. Its job is to act as a data visualization tool, showing graphical and tabular data about runner’s previous performances.

It’s also handles all the bet placement work needed to place these types of bets, tracks the progress of your bets and saves your betting history for your own analysis.

The concept of hedge betting is quite simple, Dobbin Day takes it to the next level and is well suited to seasoned hedge bettors, increasing the amount of relevant information and making the selection process and bet placement easier.

If you're new to this there is a free dobs of the day web page you can use to find decent horses, with full instructions on how to use it.